| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 63K | 50¢ | 67¢ | $42,532 | +$10.9K |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 63K | 50¢ | 33¢ | $20,475 | -$11.0K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 22.1K | 81¢ | 85¢ | $18,652 | +$849 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | No | 18.2K | 94¢ | 95¢ | $17,336 | +$135 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 15.5K | 73¢ | 72¢ | $11,234 | -$84 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 9.7K | 97¢ | 98¢ | $9,546 | +$108 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 13.4K | 78¢ | 69¢ | $9,322 | -$1,193 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 10K | 86¢ | 84¢ | $8,427 | -$199 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 11.4K | 60¢ | 72¢ | $8,160 | +$1,267 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | No | 25.2K | 33¢ | 31¢ | $7,932 | -$308 |
| Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 7K | 96¢ | 99¢ | $6,917 | +$247 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 7.4K | 88¢ | 87¢ | $6,475 | -$15 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 7.5K | 81¢ | 83¢ | $6,199 | +$139 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026? | No | 7K | 85¢ | 87¢ | $6,069 | +$97 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5.1K | 86¢ | 97¢ | $4,970 | +$531 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 5.1K | 83¢ | 97¢ | $4,968 | +$756 |
| Israeli Knesset election annulled? | No | 5K | 96¢ | 98¢ | $4,902 | +$85 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 6.2K | 76¢ | 77¢ | $4,767 | +$75 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 5K | 92¢ | 87¢ | $4,352 | -$259 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | No | 6.9K | 62¢ | 62¢ | $4,244 | -$14 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 4.4K | 84¢ | 96¢ | $4,243 | +$553 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 4.4K | 88¢ | 95¢ | $4,185 | +$345 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | No | 5.2K | 60¢ | 81¢ | $4,166 | +$1,070 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | No | 5.1K | 81¢ | 80¢ | $4,028 | -$60 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4.5K | 83¢ | 85¢ | $3,834 | +$49 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026? | No | 3.8K | 88¢ | 98¢ | $3,754 | +$385 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 3.9K | 89¢ | 92¢ | $3,560 | +$97 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 3.4K | 93¢ | 97¢ | $3,252 | +$131 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 10.1K | 47¢ | 32¢ | $3,177 | -$1,537 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026? | No | 2.9K | 83¢ | 96¢ | $2,757 | +$380 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027? | No | 3.1K | 78¢ | 78¢ | $2,466 | +$31 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes | 3.2K | 65¢ | 77¢ | $2,444 | +$398 |
| Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 2.8K | 86¢ | 83¢ | $2,317 | -$104 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 2.5K | 74¢ | 86¢ | $2,178 | +$298 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026? | No | 2K | 92¢ | 99¢ | $2,012 | +$153 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 2K | 94¢ | 98¢ | $1,996 | +$67 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 2K | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1,969 | +$59 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | No | 2.5K | 83¢ | 74¢ | $1,883 | -$222 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 2K | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1,857 | +$24 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 1.9K | 92¢ | 94¢ | $1,803 | +$44 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.8K | 77¢ | 97¢ | $1,768 | +$354 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19K | 9.5¢ | 9.2¢ | $1,761 | -$42 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 2K | 88¢ | 88¢ | $1,759 | -$5 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1.5K | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1,488 | +$19 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 1.5K | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1,483 | +$27 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 2K | 50¢ | 73¢ | $1,436 | +$450 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 2.3K | 60¢ | 61¢ | $1,384 | +$5 |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | No | 1.4K | 79¢ | 96¢ | $1,359 | +$240 |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | 1.4K | 87¢ | 98¢ | $1,359 | +$151 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3K | 45¢ | 45¢ | $1,357 | +$6 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1.5K | 88¢ | 90¢ | $1,355 | +$43 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 2.4K | 71¢ | 54¢ | $1,300 | -$405 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 45.9K | 7.5¢ | 2.5¢ | $1,169 | -$2,286 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 1.2K | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1,140 | +$104 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | Yes | 1.2K | 90¢ | 90¢ | $1,074 | -$1 |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | No | 1.1K | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1,060 | +$16 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 5.9K | 33¢ | 17¢ | $1,030 | -$909 |
| GTA VI released by November 30? | Yes | 999.7 | 98¢ | 99¢ | $991 | +$16 |
| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 1K | 98¢ | 98¢ | $983 | +$3 |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 1K | 98¢ | 98¢ | $982 | +$3 |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | No | 1K | 95¢ | 98¢ | $977 | +$27 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.1K | 89¢ | 90¢ | $955 | +$5 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | 1K | 85¢ | 95¢ | $950 | +$95 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 1K | 85¢ | 94¢ | $936 | +$86 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3.8K | 30¢ | 23¢ | $884 | -$240 |
| Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | No | 890.2 | 87¢ | 97¢ | $866 | +$95 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 900 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $850 | +$79 |
| Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 1.3K | 72¢ | 67¢ | $846 | -$59 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.7K | 33¢ | 31¢ | $820 | -$70 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 1K | 72¢ | 80¢ | $805 | +$80 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 800 | 94¢ | 96¢ | $768 | +$16 |
| Next US president 70+ years old at inauguration? | No | 798.7 | 87¢ | 94¢ | $751 | +$57 |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | No | 1.2K | 63¢ | 60¢ | $739 | -$34 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | No | 839.4 | 34¢ | 86¢ | $726 | +$441 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? | Yes | 4.1K | 27¢ | 17¢ | $709 | -$405 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 4.2K | 15¢ | 16¢ | $696 | +$46 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 1.5K | 34¢ | 46¢ | $690 | +$183 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes | 680.3 | 97¢ | 100¢ | $680 | +$18 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1K | 49¢ | 66¢ | $655 | +$165 |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 900 | 68¢ | 68¢ | $608 | -$6 |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 2.6K | 23¢ | 22¢ | $594 | -$13 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | No | 600 | 80¢ | 97¢ | $584 | +$104 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 48¢ | 25¢ | $582 | -$516 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 1K | 83¢ | 58¢ | $580 | -$255 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 871 | 54¢ | 62¢ | $540 | +$67 |
| Next US president 80+ years old at inauguration? | No | 563.4 | 92¢ | 95¢ | $538 | +$20 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 2.6K | 51¢ | 21¢ | $537 | -$770 |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 536.4 | 72¢ | 99¢ | $529 | +$141 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 545.1 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $528 | +$22 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | No | 635.8 | 74¢ | 81¢ | $515 | +$45 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 2K | 45¢ | 25¢ | $510 | -$400 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 500 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $494 | +$16 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 500 | 94¢ | 98¢ | $492 | +$22 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 694.5 | 63¢ | 69¢ | $483 | +$44 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 500 | 90¢ | 92¢ | $460 | +$12 |
| Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026? | No | 500 | 93¢ | 89¢ | $447 | -$17 |
| Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026? | No | 503.9 | 75¢ | 89¢ | $446 | +$68 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T? | Yes | 1.2K | 66¢ | 36¢ | $445 | -$360 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | No | 465.3 | 86¢ | 94¢ | $437 | +$37 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | No | 444 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $435 | +$4 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? | No | 500 | 78¢ | 80¢ | $398 | +$8 |
| Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 416.7 | 77¢ | 95¢ | $396 | +$75 |
| Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 420.8 | 73¢ | 94¢ | $396 | +$86 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 400 | 92¢ | 94¢ | $376 | +$9 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 18K | 1.9¢ | 2.0¢ | $370 | +$17 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting? | Yes | 800 | 51¢ | 46¢ | $368 | -$44 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 400 | 84¢ | 85¢ | $340 | +$4 |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | No | 500 | 72¢ | 67¢ | $336 | -$25 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 383.8 | 77¢ | 83¢ | $321 | +$24 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 500 | 61¢ | 64¢ | $319 | +$13 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 314.6 | 85¢ | 96¢ | $304 | +$37 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13? | Yes | 300 | 97¢ | 97¢ | $292 | -$0 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? | No | 369.5 | 78¢ | 78¢ | $290 | +$2 |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | No | 311 | 92¢ | 91¢ | $285 | -$2 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 1K | 49¢ | 26¢ | $272 | -$236 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 1K | 45¢ | 26¢ | $265 | -$190 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 637.6 | 25¢ | 41¢ | $261 | +$104 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 4.4K | 16¢ | 5.7¢ | $253 | -$455 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 733.9 | 34¢ | 33¢ | $246 | -$4 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 449.3 | 90¢ | 53¢ | $240 | -$165 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15? | Yes | 499.9 | 46¢ | 46¢ | $232 | +$3 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 572 | 69¢ | 36¢ | $209 | -$186 |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 280 | 85¢ | 74¢ | $207 | -$31 |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 998 | 26¢ | 20¢ | $205 | -$55 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026? | No | 200 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $199 | +$6 |
| Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 208.7 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $197 | +$3 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026? | No | 380.3 | 79¢ | 52¢ | $196 | -$106 |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 200.2 | 94¢ | 97¢ | $193 | +$4 |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026? | No | 200 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $193 | +$3 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | No | 197.5 | 76¢ | 97¢ | $192 | +$42 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027? | No | 295 | 78¢ | 60¢ | $177 | -$52 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 77¢ | 89¢ | $177 | +$23 |
| Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election? | Yes | 251.2 | 78¢ | 70¢ | $175 | -$21 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026? | No | 183.8 | 85¢ | 93¢ | $172 | +$16 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027? | No | 180.6 | 86¢ | 95¢ | $171 | +$15 |
| Next US president 45+ years old at inauguration? | No | 303 | 55¢ | 55¢ | $168 | +$2 |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 194.1 | 83¢ | 85¢ | $166 | +$5 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | No | 170.8 | 90¢ | 97¢ | $166 | +$12 |
| Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 189.7 | 83¢ | 83¢ | $158 | +$1 |
| Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 175.1 | 80¢ | 89¢ | $156 | +$15 |
| Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026? | No | 158.8 | 75¢ | 93¢ | $149 | +$29 |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? | Yes | 937.9 | 33¢ | 15¢ | $144 | -$164 |
| Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? | No | 144.3 | 88¢ | 98¢ | $141 | +$14 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 368.7 | 51¢ | 38¢ | $138 | -$48 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T? | Yes | 1.4K | 39¢ | 9.5¢ | $133 | -$413 |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | No | 207.5 | 77¢ | 62¢ | $129 | -$30 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 62¢ | 62¢ | $124 | $0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 61¢ | 61¢ | $121 | -$1 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $119 | +$3 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 1.7K | 34¢ | 6.5¢ | $109 | -$464 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026? | No | 396.6 | 68¢ | 27¢ | $107 | -$162 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1K | 12¢ | 10¢ | $101 | -$21 |
| Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 141.8 | 74¢ | 70¢ | $100 | -$5 |
| Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027? | No | 94.4 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $93 | +$8 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 24, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 87¢ | 93¢ | $93 | +$6 |
| Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 280.2 | 32¢ | 33¢ | $92 | +$3 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | No | 90.7 | 92¢ | 97¢ | $88 | +$5 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 90 | 97¢ | 97¢ | $88 | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | No | 706.8 | 58¢ | 11¢ | $78 | -$330 |
| Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 90.3 | 88¢ | 85¢ | $77 | -$2 |
| Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Yes | 1.5K | 23¢ | 5.0¢ | $77 | -$276 |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | No | 162 | 66¢ | 47¢ | $77 | -$29 |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 80¢ | 74¢ | $74 | -$7 |
| US recession by end of 2027? | No | 99.6 | 65¢ | 72¢ | $72 | +$7 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027? | No | 100 | 85¢ | 71¢ | $71 | -$14 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 77 | 89¢ | 92¢ | $70 | +$2 |
| Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31? | Yes | 300 | 43¢ | 23¢ | $69 | -$60 |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 75 | 87¢ | 92¢ | $69 | +$3 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | 73.1 | 85¢ | 93¢ | $68 | +$6 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 67.4 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $66 | +$3 |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | No | 80.2 | 82¢ | 79¢ | $63 | -$3 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 111.7 | 62¢ | 56¢ | $63 | -$7 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026? | No | 615.8 | 51¢ | 10.0¢ | $62 | -$251 |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026? | No | 65.5 | 89¢ | 93¢ | $61 | +$3 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 3.8K | 5.6¢ | 1.5¢ | $59 | -$154 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 74 | 73¢ | 79¢ | $58 | +$5 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027? | No | 100 | 59¢ | 55¢ | $55 | -$5 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 237.5 | 29¢ | 22¢ | $52 | -$16 |
| Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? | No | 83.6 | 82¢ | 60¢ | $50 | -$18 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | No | 147.3 | 31¢ | 34¢ | $50 | +$4 |
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026? | Yes | 72.5 | 74¢ | 69¢ | $50 | -$4 |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | No | 48.6 | 78¢ | 98¢ | $47 | +$9 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | No | 46 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $45 | +$1 |
| Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by June 30, 2027? | No | 100 | 43¢ | 45¢ | $45 | +$2 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | No | 50 | 84¢ | 90¢ | $45 | +$3 |
| Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027? | No | 100 | 65¢ | 44¢ | $44 | -$21 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | Yes | 197 | 31¢ | 22¢ | $43 | -$18 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | No | 217.4 | 20¢ | 20¢ | $42 | -$2 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027? | No | 104 | 75¢ | 40¢ | $42 | -$37 |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1.5K | 2.5¢ | 2.4¢ | $37 | -$2 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 188.2 | 24¢ | 19¢ | $36 | -$9 |
| Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 1.2K | 3.2¢ | 2.8¢ | $35 | -$5 |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 30.9 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $30 | +$1 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | No | 29.9 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $29 | +$1 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027? | No | 30 | 92¢ | 95¢ | $29 | +$1 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 2.3K | 1.1¢ | 1.2¢ | $28 | +$4 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027? | No | 79.6 | 58¢ | 33¢ | $26 | -$20 |
| Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 200 | 31¢ | 13¢ | $25 | -$37 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | No | 26 | 67¢ | 78¢ | $20 | +$3 |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? | No | 25.4 | 81¢ | 79¢ | $20 | -$1 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 19.5 | 92¢ | 99¢ | $19 | +$1 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21? | No | 18.9 | 86¢ | 90¢ | $17 | +$1 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? | Yes | 17 | 74¢ | 96¢ | $16 | +$4 |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C? | Yes | 60 | 15¢ | 24¢ | $14 | +$5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 75.3 | 22¢ | 12¢ | $9 | -$8 |
| Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 18¢ | 4.4¢ | $9 | -$26 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 183.3 | 4.8¢ | 4.7¢ | $9 | -$0 |
| Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 524.9 | 1.0¢ | 1.5¢ | $8 | +$3 |
| Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? | Yes | 16 | 42¢ | 40¢ | $6 | -$0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 6.4 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $6 | +$0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 5.3 | 81¢ | 99¢ | $5 | +$1 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | Yes | 356.7 | 17¢ | 1.3¢ | $5 | -$57 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 4.9 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $5 | +$0 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 3.8 | 74¢ | 96¢ | $4 | +$1 |
| Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? | No | 3.6 | 85¢ | 90¢ | $3 | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 94.6 | 9.1¢ | 3.3¢ | $3 | -$6 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | No | 3.2 | 95¢ | 92¢ | $3 | -$0 |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | No | 3.2 | 79¢ | 68¢ | $2 | -$0 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 0.8 | 95¢ | 89¢ | $1 | -$0 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | 0.6¢ | $1 | -$0 |
| Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | 200 | 7.0¢ | 0.3¢ | $1 | -$14 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028? | Yes | 0.6 | 64¢ | 63¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31? | No | 1.3K | 92¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,193 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9? | No | 4.5K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2K | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 921.3 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.1 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,310 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.9K | 91¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,766 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | No | 261 | 94¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$245 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 27? | Yes | 2.3K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$278 |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | Yes | 1 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 6.5K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 4.4K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$607 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 2.1K | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$606 |
| Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election? | Yes | 25.2 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will Karsten Schneider win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election? | Yes | 1.2 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow? | Yes | 33.1 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | Yes | 100 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | No | 100 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 1.5K | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$595 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate? | Yes | 1K | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$165 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 56.2 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | Yes | 1K | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$611 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15? | Yes | 581.5 | 88¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$513 |
| Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | No | 80 | 79¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$63 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | No | 999.3 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$778 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | No | 1K | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$545 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy) | No | 200 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$132 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026? | No | 188.7 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$45 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | No | 2.1K | 69¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,432 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 200.3 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 1.9K | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,087 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes | 2.4K | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,792 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes | 900 | 92¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$825 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14.9K | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4,584 |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | No | 1K | 74¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$768 |
| Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | No | 250 | 93¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$231 |
| Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 87¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$44 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | Yes | 1K | 94¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$936 |
| Will Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee? | No | 30K | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$630 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | Yes | 0.4 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$118 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31? | No | 200 | 70¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$140 |
| Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31? | Yes | 99.8 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18? | Yes | 2.7 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader? | No | 20 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | No | 469.4 | 88¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$411 |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31? | No | 294.3 | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$211 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026? | No | 5.9K | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,858 |
| Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | Yes | 81.8 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$46 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska? | Yes | 106.3 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? | Yes | 230 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027? | No | 1.7K | 73¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,233 |
| Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | No | 264.7 | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$168 |
| Will Trump say "Bully" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | No | 290.4 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$169 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | No | 400 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$118 |
| Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his rally in Oklahoma? | Yes | 200 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$152 |
| Will Trump say "Cuba" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | No | 100 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$41 |
| Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31? | Yes | 1.2K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | Yes | 36.4 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will Trump say "Furniture" during his remarks in North Carolina? | Yes | 100 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$76 |
| Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina? | No | 1.1 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" during his remarks in North Carolina? | No | 105.8 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio? | No | 200 | 73¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$146 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina? | No | 178 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30? | No | 700 | 89¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$624 |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? | No | 1.1K | 68¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$719 |