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Tenebrus7

TopPolymarket
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $333.9K
Quality score
0.5
Goodas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$18.5K
PnL 90d
+$7,279
ROI 90d
+1%
on $1.3M deployed
Entry edge
50%
186 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$6.6M
30406 trades
Breadth 90d
960
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 14:46
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes63K50¢67¢$42,532+$10.9K
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No63K50¢33¢$20,475-$11.0K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No22.1K81¢85¢$18,652+$849
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?No18.2K94¢95¢$17,336+$135
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No15.5K73¢72¢$11,234-$84
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes9.7K97¢98¢$9,546+$108
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No13.4K78¢69¢$9,322-$1,193
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No10K86¢84¢$8,427-$199
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No11.4K60¢72¢$8,160+$1,267
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No25.2K33¢31¢$7,932-$308
Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?No7K96¢99¢$6,917+$247
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No7.4K88¢87¢$6,475-$15
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No7.5K81¢83¢$6,199+$139
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No7K85¢87¢$6,069+$97
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes5.1K86¢97¢$4,970+$531
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes5.1K83¢97¢$4,968+$756
Israeli Knesset election annulled?No5K96¢98¢$4,902+$85
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No6.2K76¢77¢$4,767+$75
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No5K92¢87¢$4,352-$259
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No6.9K62¢62¢$4,244-$14
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No4.4K84¢96¢$4,243+$553
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes4.4K88¢95¢$4,185+$345
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?No5.2K60¢81¢$4,166+$1,070
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?No5.1K81¢80¢$4,028-$60
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes4.5K83¢85¢$3,834+$49
Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?No3.8K88¢98¢$3,754+$385
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No3.9K89¢92¢$3,560+$97
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No3.4K93¢97¢$3,252+$131
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No10.1K47¢32¢$3,177-$1,537
Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?No2.9K83¢96¢$2,757+$380
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?No3.1K78¢78¢$2,466+$31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?Yes3.2K65¢77¢$2,444+$398
Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No2.8K86¢83¢$2,317-$104
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes2.5K74¢86¢$2,178+$298
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?No2K92¢99¢$2,012+$153
Iran Nuke before 2027?No2K94¢98¢$1,996+$67
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No2K95¢98¢$1,969+$59
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?No2.5K83¢74¢$1,883-$222
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes2K92¢93¢$1,857+$24
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No1.9K92¢94¢$1,803+$44
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes1.8K77¢97¢$1,768+$354
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes19K9.5¢9.2¢$1,761-$42
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No2K88¢88¢$1,759-$5
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes1.5K96¢98¢$1,488+$19
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No1.5K97¢99¢$1,483+$27
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2K50¢73¢$1,436+$450
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No2.3K60¢61¢$1,384+$5
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?No1.4K79¢96¢$1,359+$240
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No1.4K87¢98¢$1,359+$151
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3K45¢45¢$1,357+$6
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?No1.5K88¢90¢$1,355+$43
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No2.4K71¢54¢$1,300-$405
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes45.9K7.5¢2.5¢$1,169-$2,286
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No1.2K89¢98¢$1,140+$104
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Yes1.2K90¢90¢$1,074-$1
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?No1.1K96¢98¢$1,060+$16
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes5.9K33¢17¢$1,030-$909
GTA VI released by November 30?Yes999.798¢99¢$991+$16
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes1K98¢98¢$983+$3
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No1K98¢98¢$982+$3
Iran leadership change by November 30?No1K95¢98¢$977+$27
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?No1.1K89¢90¢$955+$5
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No1K85¢95¢$950+$95
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1K85¢94¢$936+$86
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes3.8K30¢23¢$884-$240
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?No890.287¢97¢$866+$95
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?No90086¢95¢$850+$79
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No1.3K72¢67¢$846-$59
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2.7K33¢31¢$820-$70
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No1K72¢80¢$805+$80
US recession by end of 2026?No80094¢96¢$768+$16
Next US president 70+ years old at inauguration?No798.787¢94¢$751+$57
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?No1.2K63¢60¢$739-$34
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No839.434¢86¢$726+$441
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes4.1K27¢17¢$709-$405
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes4.2K15¢16¢$696+$46
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No1.5K34¢46¢$690+$183
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Yes680.397¢100¢$680+$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes1K49¢66¢$655+$165
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes90068¢68¢$608-$6
AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?Yes2.6K23¢22¢$594-$13
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No60080¢97¢$584+$104
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes2.3K48¢25¢$582-$516
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?No1K83¢58¢$580-$255
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Yes87154¢62¢$540+$67
Next US president 80+ years old at inauguration?No563.492¢95¢$538+$20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes2.6K51¢21¢$537-$770
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?No536.472¢99¢$529+$141
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No545.193¢97¢$528+$22
Kash Patel out by December 31?No635.874¢81¢$515+$45
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No2K45¢25¢$510-$400
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No50095¢99¢$494+$16
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes50094¢98¢$492+$22
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No694.563¢69¢$483+$44
Iran leadership change by December 31?No50090¢92¢$460+$12
Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?No50093¢89¢$447-$17
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?No503.975¢89¢$446+$68
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.5T?Yes1.2K66¢36¢$445-$360
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?No465.386¢94¢$437+$37
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No44497¢98¢$435+$4
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?No50078¢80¢$398+$8
Will BNB reach $1000 by December 31, 2026?No416.777¢95¢$396+$75
Next James Bond announced by December 31, 2026?Yes420.873¢94¢$396+$86
AI bubble burst in 2026?No40092¢94¢$376+$9
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes18K1.9¢2.0¢$370+$17
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2027 meeting?Yes80051¢46¢$368-$44
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?No40084¢85¢$340+$4
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No50072¢67¢$336-$25
Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?Yes383.877¢83¢$321+$24
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes50061¢64¢$319+$13
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No314.685¢96¢$304+$37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13?Yes30097¢97¢$292-$0
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?No369.578¢78¢$290+$2
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No31192¢91¢$285-$2
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No1K49¢26¢$272-$236
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes1K45¢26¢$265-$190
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes637.625¢41¢$261+$104
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes4.4K16¢5.7¢$253-$455
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?Yes733.934¢33¢$246-$4
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of December 2026?No449.390¢53¢$240-$165
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?Yes499.946¢46¢$232+$3
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of December 2026?No57269¢36¢$209-$186
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?No28085¢74¢$207-$31
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes99826¢20¢$205-$55
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?No20096¢99¢$199+$6
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No208.793¢94¢$197+$3
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of December 2026?No380.379¢52¢$196-$106
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No200.294¢97¢$193+$4
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 30, 2026?No20095¢96¢$193+$3
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?No197.576¢97¢$192+$42
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?No29578¢60¢$177-$52
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?Yes20077¢89¢$177+$23
Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?Yes251.278¢70¢$175-$21
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?No183.885¢93¢$172+$16
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?No180.686¢95¢$171+$15
Next US president 45+ years old at inauguration?No30355¢55¢$168+$2
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?No194.183¢85¢$166+$5
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No170.890¢97¢$166+$12
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?No189.783¢83¢$158+$1
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No175.180¢89¢$156+$15
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by November 30, 2026?No158.875¢93¢$149+$29
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Yes937.933¢15¢$144-$164
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?No144.388¢98¢$141+$14
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes368.751¢38¢$138-$48
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?Yes1.4K39¢9.5¢$133-$413
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No207.577¢62¢$129-$30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?Yes20062¢62¢$124$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?Yes20061¢61¢$121-$1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?Yes20058¢59¢$119+$3
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1.7K34¢6.5¢$109-$464
Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?No396.668¢27¢$107-$162
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes1K12¢10¢$101-$21
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No141.874¢70¢$100-$5
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?No94.490¢99¢$93+$8
Will Anthropic IPO by November 24, 2026?Yes10087¢93¢$93+$6
Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes280.232¢33¢$92+$3
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No90.792¢97¢$88+$5
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No9097¢97¢$88+$0
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?No706.858¢11¢$78-$330
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No90.388¢85¢$77-$2
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2T?Yes1.5K23¢5.0¢$77-$276
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?No16266¢47¢$77-$29
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No10080¢74¢$74-$7
US recession by end of 2027?No99.665¢72¢$72+$7
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?No10085¢71¢$71-$14
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No7789¢92¢$70+$2
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?Yes30043¢23¢$69-$60
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No7587¢92¢$69+$3
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?No73.185¢93¢$68+$6
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No67.493¢98¢$66+$3
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No80.282¢79¢$63-$3
Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes111.762¢56¢$63-$7
Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?No615.851¢10.0¢$62-$251
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?No65.589¢93¢$61+$3
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes3.8K5.6¢1.5¢$59-$154
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?No7473¢79¢$58+$5
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30, 2027?No10059¢55¢$55-$5
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes237.529¢22¢$52-$16
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?No83.682¢60¢$50-$18
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?No147.331¢34¢$50+$4
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of December 2026?Yes72.574¢69¢$50-$4
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?No48.678¢98¢$47+$9
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?No4696¢99¢$45+$1
Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by June 30, 2027?No10043¢45¢$45+$2
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No5084¢90¢$45+$3
Tokenized stocks available on Coinbase by March 31, 2027?No10065¢44¢$44-$21
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes19731¢22¢$43-$18
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?No217.420¢20¢$42-$2
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?No10475¢40¢$42-$37
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1.5K2.5¢2.4¢$37-$2
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes188.224¢19¢$36-$9
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes1.2K3.2¢2.8¢$35-$5
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No30.997¢98¢$30+$1
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?No29.993¢98¢$29+$1
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?No3092¢95¢$29+$1
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2.3K1.1¢1.2¢$28+$4
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?No79.658¢33¢$26-$20
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by June 30, 2027?Yes20031¢13¢$25-$37
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?No2667¢78¢$20+$3
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?No25.481¢79¢$20-$1
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No19.592¢99¢$19+$1
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?No18.986¢90¢$17+$1
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?Yes1774¢96¢$16+$4
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?Yes6015¢24¢$14+$5
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes75.322¢12¢$9-$8
Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2026?Yes20018¢4.4¢$9-$26
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes183.34.8¢4.7¢$9-$0
Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?Yes524.91.0¢1.5¢$8+$3
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?Yes1642¢40¢$6-$0
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No6.492¢98¢$6+$0
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?No5.381¢99¢$5+$1
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Yes356.717¢1.3¢$5-$57
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No4.997¢98¢$5+$0
Natural Disaster in 2026?No3.874¢96¢$4+$1
Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?No3.685¢90¢$3+$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes94.69.1¢3.3¢$3-$6
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No3.295¢92¢$3-$0
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No3.279¢68¢$2-$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No0.895¢89¢$1-$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1000.7¢0.6¢$1-$0
Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes2007.0¢0.3¢$1-$14
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1000.7¢0.4¢$0-$0
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?Yes0.664¢63¢$0-$0
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1000.7¢0.1¢$0-$1
Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1000.7¢0.1¢$0-$1
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1000.7¢0.1¢$0-$1
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?No1.3K92¢0.0¢$0-$1,193
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?No4.5K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes921.33.1¢0.0¢$0-$29
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes0.136¢0.0¢$0-$0
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?Yes2.3K57¢0.0¢$0-$1,310
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Yes1.9K91¢0.0¢$0-$1,766
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?No26194¢0.0¢$0-$245
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Yes2.3K12¢0.0¢$0-$278
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes116¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes6.5K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$7
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes4.4K14¢0.0¢$0-$607
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes2.1K29¢0.0¢$0-$606
Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?Yes25.262¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Karsten Schneider win the next Wolfsburg mayoral election?Yes1.215¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Yes33.127¢0.0¢$0-$9
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Yes10016¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026No10030¢0.0¢$0-$30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Yes1.5K40¢0.0¢$0-$595
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?Yes1K16¢0.0¢$0-$165
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Yes56.229¢0.0¢$0-$16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Yes1K59¢0.0¢$0-$611
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Yes581.588¢0.0¢$0-$513
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No8079¢0.0¢$0-$63
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No999.378¢0.0¢$0-$778
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?No1K54¢0.0¢$0-$545
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 23, 2026? (copy) (copy)No20066¢0.0¢$0-$132
Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026?No188.724¢0.0¢$0-$45
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?No2.1K69¢0.0¢$0-$1,432
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?No200.344¢0.0¢$0-$87
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes1.9K58¢0.0¢$0-$1,087
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes2.4K76¢0.0¢$0-$1,792
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes90092¢0.0¢$0-$825
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes14.9K31¢0.0¢$0-$4,584
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?No1K74¢0.0¢$0-$768
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?No25093¢0.0¢$0-$231
Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?No5087¢0.0¢$0-$44
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes1K94¢0.0¢$0-$936
Will Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee?No30K2.1¢0.0¢$0-$630
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Yes0.46.0¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No20059¢0.0¢$0-$118
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?No20070¢0.0¢$0-$140
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?Yes99.82.0¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on September 18?Yes2.738¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?No2049¢0.0¢$0-$10
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?No469.488¢0.0¢$0-$411
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by December 31?No294.372¢0.0¢$0-$211
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?No5.9K66¢0.0¢$0-$3,858
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Yes81.856¢0.0¢$0-$46
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during his Midterm Rally in Nebraska?Yes106.35.0¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will Matthew Rabin win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?Yes2304.0¢0.0¢$0-$9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?No1.7K73¢0.0¢$0-$1,233
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?No264.764¢0.0¢$0-$168
Will Trump say "Bully" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?No290.458¢0.0¢$0-$169
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?No40030¢0.0¢$0-$118
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his rally in Oklahoma?Yes20076¢0.0¢$0-$152
Will Trump say "Cuba" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?No10041¢0.0¢$0-$41
Todd Blanche nomination withdrawn by August 31?Yes1.2K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his remarks in North Carolina?Yes36.446¢0.0¢$0-$17
Will Trump say "Furniture" during his remarks in North Carolina?Yes10076¢0.0¢$0-$76
Will Trump say "Crazy" during his remarks in North Carolina?No1.19.0¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Trump say "Russia" during his remarks in North Carolina?No105.861¢0.0¢$0-$65
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?No20073¢0.0¢$0-$146
Will Trump say "Iran" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?No17836¢0.0¢$0-$65
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?No70089¢0.0¢$0-$624
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?No1.1K68¢0.0¢$0-$719