Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $77.6K·Volume $654.1K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes38%No63%
Smart money leans
No
63% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
93%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
63%price63%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$16.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$769
72h +$214
Smart money entered59¢63¢at 07:19(91% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$77.6K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $16.6K riding on it.
The price of 63% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 63¢ at this snapshot — roughly 91% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$769, +$214 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:19
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $126 |
| 2h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $76 |
| 2h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $16 |
| 4h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $7 |
| 4h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $13 |
| 4h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $13 |
| 5h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $14 |
| 6h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $61 |
| 6h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $2 |
| 6h ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $503 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $2 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $2 |
| 8h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $19 |
| 10h ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $78 |
| 10h ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $78 |
| 21h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $84 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $250 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 50¢ | $250 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $265 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $265 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $270 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $113 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 45¢ | $113 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $82 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $14 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $31 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $31 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $122 |
| 2d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $122 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $357 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $4 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $16 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $19 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $18 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $17 |
| 2d ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $14 |
| 3d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | No | 58¢ | $17 |
| 3d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | No | 58¢ | $17 |
| 3d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | No | 57¢ | $141 |
| 3d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | No | 57¢ | $141 |