Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $783.3K·Volume $5.2M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes47%No53%
Smart money leans
Yes
46% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
46%price46%model est.*
Smart wallets
21
$138.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,115
72h +$14.8K
Smart money entered40¢46¢at 07:25(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$783.3K
Explanation
21 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $138.9K riding on it.
The price of 46% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 40¢; the price was 46¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,115, +$14.8K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:25
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $11 |
| 2h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $75 |
| 2h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $116 |
| 2h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $7 |
| 2h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $54 |
| 2h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $54 |
| 2h ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $232 |
| 2h ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $696 |
| 2h ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $696 |
| 2h ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $464 |
| 2h ago | scrapbookMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $464 |
| 3h ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $17 |
| 4h ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $10 |
| 4h ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $10 |
| 4h ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $242 |
| 18h ago | JesetradingTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $165 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $118 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $44 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $44 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $100 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $329 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $329 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $329 |
| 1d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $58 |