Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $58.2K·Volume $39.0K·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$11.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,394
72h +$9,218
Smart money entered97¢100¢at 07:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 5d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$58.2K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $11.7K riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 97¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,394, +$9,218 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $4,975 |
| 1h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $1,992 |
| 6h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $696 |
| 6h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $696 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $1,980 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $1,980 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $989 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $989 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $887 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $887 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $30 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $30 |
| 3d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,839 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $125 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $238 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,940 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,473 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 6.0¢ | $13 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $11 |
| 5d ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $483 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $8 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $22 |