Iran leadership change by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $178.5K·Volume $980.1K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$161.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,920
72h +$13.1K
Smart money entered95¢97¢at 00:22Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$178.5K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $161.8K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,920, +$13.1K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:22
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $972 |
| 10h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $975 |
| 10h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $975 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $979 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $509 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $509 |
| 1d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,943 |
| 1d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,943 |
| 1d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,913 |
| 1d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,913 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $389 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $389 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $79 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $79 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $682 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $686 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $686 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $433 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $434 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $39 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $426 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $17 |
| 2d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5,652 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5,856 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $166 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $852 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,712 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $8,269 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $8,256 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $321 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $4,579 |
| 2d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $4,007 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $1,573 |
| 2d ago | qizhanMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $4,905 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $369 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $102 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $115 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $235 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $32 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $974 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $970 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $185 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $930 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $31 |