Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
ActiveLiquidity $140.4K·Volume $2.0M·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes96%No4%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.2pp
model below price
Consensus
95%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$89.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$13.6K
72h +$36.4K
Smart money entered82¢96¢at 20:54Edge leftnoneLast smart buy9h agoResolvesin 5d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$140.4K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $89.0K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$13.6K, +$36.4K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:54
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 96¢ | $116 |
| 1h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 96¢ | $116 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $574 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $574 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $193 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $193 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.0¢ | $78 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.0¢ | $78 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.1¢ | $31 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.1¢ | $31 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.1¢ | $62 |
| 19h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 3.1¢ | $62 |
| 19h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $5,850 |
| 19h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $5,850 |
| 1d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 6.0¢ | $279 |
| 1d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | No | 6.0¢ | $279 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 7.9¢ | $2,201 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 7.9¢ | $2,201 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $420 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 8.0¢ | $878 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $334 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $33 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $552 |
| 1d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | No | 7.0¢ | $411 |
| 1d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | No | 7.0¢ | $411 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 7.0¢ | $42 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $917 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $3,016 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $3,048 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 7.0¢ | $42 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $3,016 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $917 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $3,048 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $564 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $564 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $3,021 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $3,021 |
| 1d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $474 |
| 1d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $474 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $1,918 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $138 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $138 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $485 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $485 |