Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $1,442·Volume $63.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes45%No55%
Smart money leans
Yes
45% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
64%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$891 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered37¢45¢at 07:09(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$1,442
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $891 riding on it.
The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 37¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $891 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:09
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 42¢ | $41 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 42¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $244 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Sell | No | 48¢ | $204 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 41¢ | $147 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $9 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $14 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $62 |
| 4w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | No | 34¢ | $150 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 65¢ | $33 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $10 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $19 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $17 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $114 |
| 7w ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $134 |
| 8w ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $971 |
| 8w ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $508 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $29 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $74 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $82 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $125 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $75 |
| 8w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 46¢ | $11 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $64 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $4 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 54¢ | $3 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 53¢ | $7 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 53¢ | $49 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 40¢ | $39 |
| 9w ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $269 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $20 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $33 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 35¢ | $34 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $90 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $269 |
| 9w ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Buy | No | 40¢ | $267 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $6 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $6 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $0 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 69¢ | $11 |
| 9w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $12 |
| 10w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |