Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $168.0K·Volume $745.3K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,104 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,908
72h +$2,297
Smart money entered92¢95¢at 21:47(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$168.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,104 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,104 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,908, +$2,297 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $461 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $76 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $461 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $76 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $417 |
| 1h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $417 |
| 1d ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $150 |
| 1d ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $150 |
| 4d ago | broskyeMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $46 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $23 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $30 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 34¢ | $53 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $116 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $292 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $91 |
| 1w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $75 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $180 |
| 2w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $70 |
| 2w ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $113 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $38 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $141 |
| 2w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $225 |
| 2w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $217 |