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Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

ActiveLiquidity $168.0K·Volume $745.3K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes5%No95%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 21:47computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,104 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,908
72h +$2,297
Smart money entered92¢95¢at 21:47(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$168.0K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,104 riding on it.

The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,104 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,908, +$2,297 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 21:47
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$461
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$76
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$461
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$76
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$417
1h agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo95¢$417
1d agobroskyeMidBuyNo76¢$8
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo76¢$150
1d agobroskyeMidBuyNo76¢$8
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo76¢$150
4d agobroskyeMidSellNo75¢$5
4d agobroskyeMidBuyNo75¢$5
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$46
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$23
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$30
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes34¢$53
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$116
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$5
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$292
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$14
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$22
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes27¢$91
1w agokaxel78MidBuyNo71¢$30
1w agoklli27MidBuyNo71¢$75
1w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo72¢$180
2w agoklli27MidBuyNo77¢$70
2w agobroskyeMidBuyNo78¢$4
2w agobroskyeMidBuyNo78¢$4
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$113
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$1
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$2
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$8
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$8
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$8
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo76¢$3
2w agokaxel78MidBuyNo75¢$38
2w agoklli27MidBuyNo75¢$38
2w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo76¢$141
2w agokaxel78MidBuyNo77¢$225
2w agoklli27MidBuyNo77¢$217