Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
ActiveLiquidity $411.8K·Volume $5.1M·Ends Dec 9, 2026
Price now:Yes86%No14%
Smart money leans
Yes
86% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
86%price86%model est.*
Smart wallets
18
$248.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$120.1K
72h +$136.1K
Smart money entered78¢86¢at 07:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy12h agoResolvesin 29d(Dec 9, 2026)Liquidity$411.8K
Explanation
18 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $248.3K riding on it.
The price of 86% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 86¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$120.1K, +$136.1K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $178 |
| 1h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $178 |
| 11h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 14¢ | $81 |
| 11h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 14¢ | $0 |
| 11h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 14¢ | $7 |
| 12h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $0 |
| 12h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 15¢ | $300 |
| 12h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $1 |
| 12h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $8,936 |
| 12h ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $8,936 |
| 13h ago | classifiedMid | Sell | No | 17¢ | $850 |
| 13h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $180 |
| 13h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $108 |
| 14h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $110 |
| 14h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $110 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $329 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $329 |
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $184 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $209 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $209 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $575 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $575 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $120 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $120 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $120 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $120 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $329 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $329 |
| 15h ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $168 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $371 |
| 15h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $184 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $209 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $209 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $575 |
| 15h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $575 |
| 15h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $466 |
| 15h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $467 |
| 15h ago | 080526Top | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $371 |
| 15h ago | classifiedMid | Sell | No | 17¢ | $850 |
| 15h ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 83¢ | $166 |
| 16h ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $107 |
| 16h ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Sell | No | 15¢ | $21 |
| 16h ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Sell | No | 15¢ | $21 |
| 16h ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $850 |
| 17h ago | foodenjoyerMid | Sell | Yes | 85¢ | $369 |
| 17h ago | foodenjoyerMid | Sell | Yes | 85¢ | $369 |
| 17h ago | tsekinming01Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $726 |
| 17h ago | tsekinming01Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $726 |
| 17h ago | tsekinming01Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $840 |
| 17h ago | tsekinming01Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $840 |