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Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $152.5K·Volume $655.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 15:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$15.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢97¢at 15:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$152.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $15.1K riding on it.

The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Delayed 1h · as of 15:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
6d agopIebeTopBuyNo91¢$365
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo88¢$6,665
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$18
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$106
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$4
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$41
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$33
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$105
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$27
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$100
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$355
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$59
6d agoJSG3TopBuyNo72¢$1,313
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$954
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$446
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$169
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$200
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$19
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$427
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo79¢$155
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$261
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$40
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$4
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$22
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$16
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo80¢$137
1w agoJSG3TopBuyNo78¢$3,120