Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $382.5K·Volume $17.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes31%No69%
Smart money leans
Yes
31% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
80%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
31%price31%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$27.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$15
72h +$1,913
Smart money entered36¢31¢at 22:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy21h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$382.5K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $27.9K riding on it.
The price of 31% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 36¢; the price was 31¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$15, +$1,913 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 22:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $9 |
| 21h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $311 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $311 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $42 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $42 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $30 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $30 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $99 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $32 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $2 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $16 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $9 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $73 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $764 |
| 4d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $147 |
| 4d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 62¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $5,736 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $120 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $124 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $1,372 |
| 4d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $166 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $4,658 |