Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $99.2K·Volume $1.2M·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes86%No14%
Smart money leans
Yes
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
77%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$22.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$2,096
72h +$2,472
Smart money entered64¢85¢at 20:36(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 20d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$99.2K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $22.4K riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$2,096, +$2,472 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:36
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $425 |
| 6h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $425 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 86¢ | $430 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 86¢ | $506 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 86¢ | $430 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 86¢ | $506 |
| 22h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $162 |
| 22h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $162 |
| 23h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $756 |
| 23h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 80¢ | $756 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $390 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $390 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $257 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $33 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $385 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $385 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $21 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 22¢ | $880 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 22¢ | $880 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $306 |
| 1d ago | 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451Mid | Buy | No | 21¢ | $306 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $390 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $395 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $395 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $651 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $651 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $149 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $149 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $149 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $149 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $25 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $26 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 74¢ | $750 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 74¢ | $750 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $555 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $555 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $169 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $174 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $1,270 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $453 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $9 |