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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

ActiveLiquidity $99.2K·Volume $1.2M·Ends Nov 30, 2026
Price now:Yes86%No14%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 20:36computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
77%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$22.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$2,096
72h +$2,472
Smart money entered64¢85¢at 20:36(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 20d(Nov 30, 2026)Liquidity$99.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $22.4K riding on it.

The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$2,096, +$2,472 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.

Delayed 1h · as of 20:36
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
6h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes85¢$425
6h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes85¢$425
11h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes86¢$430
11h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes86¢$506
11h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes86¢$430
11h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes86¢$506
22h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes81¢$162
22h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes81¢$162
23h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes80¢$756
23h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes80¢$756
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes78¢$390
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes78¢$390
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$257
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$33
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$13
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$13
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes77¢$385
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes77¢$385
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$21
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo22¢$880
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo22¢$880
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$306
1d ago0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451MidBuyNo21¢$306
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes78¢$390
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes79¢$395
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes79¢$395
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$651
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$651
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$149
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$149
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$149
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$149
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$25
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$9
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$4
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$2
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$4
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$2
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$9
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes75¢$26
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes74¢$750
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes74¢$750
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes73¢$555
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes73¢$555
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes70¢$169
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes70¢$7
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes70¢$174
1d agoTenebrus7TopSellYes71¢$1,270
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes71¢$453
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes71¢$9