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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

ActiveLiquidity $238.8K·Volume $11.5M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes18%No82%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 00:35computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
18% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.5pp
model above price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
18%price19%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$33.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,222
72h +$5,323
Smart money entered20¢18¢at 00:35(0% priced in)Edge left+0.5ppLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$238.8K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $33.4K riding on it.

The price of 18% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 20¢; the price was 18¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,222, +$5,323 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 00:35
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes18¢$1
2h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes18¢$556
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes18¢$40
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes18¢$40
9h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$26
9h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$9
10h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$11
11h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$49
11h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$25
12h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$8
12h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$5
14h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$81
14h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes19¢$81
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$20
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$20
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$99
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$13
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$12
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$12
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$54
15h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$54
16h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$10
16h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$10
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$0
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$4
17h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$4
18h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$3
18h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$3
19h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$3
19h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$3
21h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$1
21h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$1
21h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$2
21h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$2
21h agomoonlight2020MidBuyYes20¢$4