Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $238.8K·Volume $11.5M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes18%No82%
Smart money leans
Yes
18% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.5pp
model above price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
18%price19%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$33.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,222
72h +$5,323
Smart money entered20¢18¢at 00:35(0% priced in)Edge left+0.5ppLast smart buy1h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$238.8K
Explanation
8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $33.4K riding on it.
The price of 18% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 20¢; the price was 18¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,222, +$5,323 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $556 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $40 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $40 |
| 9h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $26 |
| 9h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $9 |
| 10h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $11 |
| 11h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $49 |
| 11h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $25 |
| 12h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $8 |
| 12h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $5 |
| 14h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $81 |
| 14h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $81 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $20 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $20 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $99 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $13 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $12 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $12 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $54 |
| 15h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $54 |
| 16h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $10 |
| 16h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $10 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |
| 17h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |
| 18h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $3 |
| 18h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $3 |
| 19h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $3 |
| 19h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $3 |
| 21h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $1 |
| 21h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $1 |
| 21h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $2 |
| 21h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $2 |
| 21h ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $4 |