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Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $106.1K·Volume $1.7M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes69%No31%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 00:29computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
69% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
80%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$136.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$3,946
72h +$3,230
Smart money entered43¢69¢at 00:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$106.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $136.9K riding on it.

The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 43¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$3,946, +$3,230 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 00:29
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3h agojustdanceMidBuyNo32¢$429
6h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes72¢$1,410
6h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes72¢$1,410
8h agojustdanceMidBuyYes71¢$14
8h agojustdanceMidBuyYes71¢$14
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes70¢$18
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes69¢$11
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes69¢$13
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes69¢$28
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes68¢$22
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes68¢$22
9h agojustdanceMidBuyYes66¢$10
10h agojustdanceMidBuyNo36¢$11
10h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes65¢$618
10h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes65¢$618
10h agopbshineMidBuyYes65¢$605
10h agopbshineMidBuyYes65¢$45
10h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes66¢$127
10h ago0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7MidSellYes66¢$127
10h agopbshineMidBuyYes66¢$127
10h agopbshineMidBuyYes65¢$0
11h agopbshineMidBuyYes66¢$2
11h agopbshineMidBuyYes66¢$39
11h agopbshineMidBuyYes65¢$334
11h agopbshineMidBuyYes65¢$334
11h agojustdanceMidBuyYes65¢$60
11h agojustdanceMidBuyYes62¢$146
12h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$6
12h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$28
14h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$3
15h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$5
15h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$7
16h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$6
16h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$6
17h agopbshineMidBuyYes57¢$21
18h agojustdanceMidBuyYes59¢$143
22h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$2,092
22h agoboyauMidBuyYes61¢$2,092
23h agopbshineMidBuyYes57¢$767
23h agopbshineMidBuyYes57¢$767
23h agojustdanceMidBuyYes56¢$3
23h agojustdanceMidBuyYes56¢$3
1d agoTokorTopBuyYes55¢$496
1d agojustdanceMidBuyYes55¢$1,650
1d agojustdanceMidBuyYes55¢$1,650
1d agopbshineMidBuyYes58¢$1,160
1d agopbshineMidBuyYes58¢$1,160
1d agoTokorTopBuyYes60¢$1,791
1d agojustdanceMidBuyYes60¢$1,800
1d agojustdanceMidBuyYes60¢$1,800