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Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $78.5K·Volume $2.2M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:13computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
76%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$10.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢97¢at 07:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$78.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $10.6K riding on it.

The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:13
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
5d agoTrump2028TopBuyNo92¢$73
1w agohugecaulkMidSellYes8.1¢$84
1w agoponydsbMidSellNo95¢$2
1w agoponydsbMidSellNo95¢$14
1w agothoodrMidBuyNo92¢$214
1w agohugecaulkMidBuyYes6.4¢$192
1w agohugecaulkMidBuyYes6.7¢$0
1w agohugecaulkMidBuyYes6.7¢$2
2w agoponydsbMidSellNo87¢$83
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo91¢$15
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo91¢$15
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo91¢$34
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo91¢$3
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo91¢$35
4w agoCarMidSellYes11¢$15
4w agoCarMidSellYes11¢$7
4w agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$17
4w agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$1
4w agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$2
4w agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$0
4w agoCarMidBuyNo89¢$178
4w agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$0
4w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$75
5w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$8
5w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$9
5w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$1
5w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$1
5w agoCarMidBuyYes12¢$2
5w agoCarMidBuyNo86¢$43
5w agoCarMidBuyNo86¢$9
5w agoCarMidBuyNo86¢$6
5w agoCarMidBuyNo86¢$114
6w agopiepedMidSellYes13¢$1
6w agopiepedMidSellYes13¢$0
6w agopiepedMidSellYes13¢$687
6w agoStarMasterMidSellYes16¢$158
6w agoviniiTopSellNo80¢$2
6w agopiepedMidBuyYes15¢$1
6w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes16¢$160
6w agopiepedMidBuyYes15¢$30
6w agopiepedMidBuyYes13¢$933
9w ago0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876MidSellNo86¢$835
10w agoZaratustraMidBuyNo86¢$57
11w agoZaratustraMidBuyNo86¢$86
11w agoCarMidBuyNo87¢$173
11w agoCarMidBuyNo87¢$1
11w agoCarMidBuyNo87¢$0
11w agoCarMidBuyNo88¢$176
11w agoZaratustraMidBuyNo88¢$88
11w agoCarMidBuyYes11¢$1