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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

ActiveLiquidity $835.4K·Volume $18.9M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes17%No83%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 21:14computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
17% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.2pp
model below price
Consensus
64%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
17%price17%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,223 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$64
72h +$366
Smart money entered21¢17¢at 21:14Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$835.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $3,223 riding on it.

The price of 17% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 21¢; the price was 17¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $3,223 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$64, +$366 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 21:14
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
6h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$2
6h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$2
7h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$1
7h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$5
7h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$5
8h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$1
11h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$25
11h agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$25
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$58
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$58
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$9
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$5
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$5
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$53
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$53
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$16
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$13
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$9
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$2
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$2
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$0
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$0
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$7
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$7
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
1d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes18¢$1
4d agolastminwinTopBuyNo79¢$1,147
4d agolastminwinTopBuyNo81¢$8,060
4d agolastminwinTopBuyNo80¢$8,030
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo81¢$7,702
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo81¢$391
5d agostupid22TopSellYes20¢$188
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo83¢$8,316
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo83¢$8,280
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo82¢$8,240
5d agolastminwinTopBuyNo83¢$14
5d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes17¢$166
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$646
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$830
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$29
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$1
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$1
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$1
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$4
5d agostupid22TopBuyYes17¢$1