Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $835.4K·Volume $18.9M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes17%No83%
Smart money leans
Yes
17% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.2pp
model below price
Consensus
64%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
17%price17%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,223 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$64
72h +$366
Smart money entered21¢17¢at 21:14Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$835.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $3,223 riding on it.
The price of 17% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 21¢; the price was 17¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $3,223 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$64, +$366 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:14
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $2 |
| 6h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $2 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $5 |
| 7h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $5 |
| 8h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $25 |
| 11h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $25 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $16 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 79¢ | $1,147 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $8,060 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $8,030 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $7,702 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 81¢ | $391 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $188 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $8,316 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $8,280 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $8,240 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $166 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $646 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $830 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $29 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | stupid22Top | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |