Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $68.4K·Volume $50.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes11%No90%
Smart money leans
Yes
11% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
72%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
11%price11%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$263 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$53
72h +$53
Smart money entered23¢11¢at 07:23(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy16h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$68.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $263 riding on it.
The price of 11% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 23¢; the price was 11¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $263 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$53, +$53 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $55 |
| 5d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $308 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $230 |
| 5d ago | 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960Mid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $899 |
| 5d ago | pbshineMid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $300 |