US recession by end of 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $67.4K·Volume $2.4M·Ends Jan 31, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$36.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$19
Smart money entered86¢96¢at Nov 10, 23:56(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 81d(Jan 31, 2027)Liquidity$67.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $36.8K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$19 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 23:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $38 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $1,468 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $460 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $1,733 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $115 |
| 1w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xheavy888Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $682 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $920 |
| 2w ago | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $7,492 |
| 2w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $185 |
| 2w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $910 |
| 2w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $2,838 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $37 |
| 3w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $930 |
| 3w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 93¢ | $1,244 |
| 4w ago | Rafael88Top | Sell | No | 93¢ | $20 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $1,218 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $428 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $5,253 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $93 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $56 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $1,860 |
| 5w ago | pilimiliMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $392 |
| 5w ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $831 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $426 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $433 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $17 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $92 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $17 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $180 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $57 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,140 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $134 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $37 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $45 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $42 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $280 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $624 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $890 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $167 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $447 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 92¢ | $276 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $63 |