Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $15.7K·Volume $94.2K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes7%No93%
Smart money leans
No
93% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$4,429 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered87¢93¢at 16:17(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$15.7K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $4,429 riding on it.
The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $4,429 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 16:17
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $3,142 |
| 5w ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $3,450 |
| 5w ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $103 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $80 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $18 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $89 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 88¢ | $30 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,020 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 87¢ | $87 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $430 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $344 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $166 |
| 7w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 87¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 85¢ | $62 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $328 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 87¢ | $107 |
| 8w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $613 |
| 8w ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | No | 86¢ | $86 |
| 11w ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Top | Buy | No | 82¢ | $155 |
| 11w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 83¢ | $415 |