Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $41.3K·Volume $523.8K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes22%No78%
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
80%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,850 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,560
Smart money entered56¢78¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$41.3K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $1,850 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 56¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,560 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $491 |
| 4h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $491 |
| 9h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $43 |
| 9h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $43 |
| 19h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $57 |
| 19h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $14 |
| 19h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $14 |
| 22h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $8 |
| 22h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $29 |
| 22h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $29 |
| 22h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $7 |
| 22h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $7 |
| 23h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $305 |
| 23h ago | Ditto321Top | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $305 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $116 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $116 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $87 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $87 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $103 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $103 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $61 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $61 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $98 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $142 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $142 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $35 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $35 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $66 |
| 1w ago | TBill1Mid | Sell | No | 61¢ | $298 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $5 |