Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $103.4K·Volume $2.3M·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
86%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,742 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 07:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$103.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,742 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,742 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,962 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $98 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $472 |
| 4w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $1,502 |