US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $218.3K·Volume $4.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes13%No88%
Smart money leans
No
87% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
68%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$234.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$12.3K
72h +$48.4K
Smart money entered87¢87¢at 00:42(36% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$218.3K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $234.1K riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 36% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$12.3K, +$48.4K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:42