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Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $38.9K·Volume $634.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes63%No37%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 22:10computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
37% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
56%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
37%price37%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,282 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered81¢37¢at 22:10Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$38.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is narrowly leaning toward betting on "No", with $1,282 riding on it.

The price of 37% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 81¢; the price was 37¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $1,282 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 22:10
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo36¢$17
2d agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyYes65¢$30
1w agoTenebrus7TopSellYes49¢$205
1w agoTenebrus7TopSellYes50¢$106
1w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes53¢$265
2w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes56¢$280
2w agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes54¢$270
2w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo46¢$1
2w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo46¢$38
2w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo46¢$44
2w agoTenebrus7TopBuyNo46¢$83
8w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo54¢$15
8w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo54¢$4
9w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo58¢$21
9w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellYes40¢$4
9w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellYes40¢$5
9w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellYes41¢$1
9w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo60¢$25
11w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo62¢$5
11w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo60¢$2
11w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo63¢$13
11w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo63¢$20