Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $83.0K·Volume $546.0K·Ends Jul 1, 2027
Price now:Yes20%No81%
Smart money leans
No
81% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
91%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
81%price81%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$7,732 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$8,155
Smart money entered77¢81¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy16h agoResolvesin 232d(Jul 1, 2027)Liquidity$83.0K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $7,732 riding on it.
The price of 81% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 81¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$8,155 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $2 |
| 16h ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $4,000 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 79¢ | $4,000 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $715 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $750 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $364 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $370 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $710 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $249 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $59 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 31¢ | $477 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $477 |
| 1w ago | cashyMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $1,124 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $12 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $260 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $4 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $44 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $50 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $71 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $362 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $510 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $165 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $387 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $50 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $200 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $10 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $960 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $132 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $3,717 |
| 3w ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $7,600 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $118 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | classifiedMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $270 |