Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
ActiveLiquidity $83.3K·Volume $312.5K·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$49.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$9,430
72h +$8,392
Smart money entered74¢99¢at 07:02(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$83.3K
Explanation
9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $49.3K riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$9,430, +$8,392 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:02
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $3,523 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $3,523 |
| 19h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,174 |
| 19h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,174 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $156 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $156 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $16 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $16 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $143 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $49 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $98 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $1,728 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $103 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $42 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $142 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $180 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $5,596 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $115 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $105 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $741 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $29 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $47 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $48 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $404 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $905 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $2,177 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $104 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $267 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $39 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $599 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $96 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $2 |
| 5d ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 93¢ | $33 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $155 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $165 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $407 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $253 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $494 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $568 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $277 |