Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $90.0K·Volume $2.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes12%No88%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:32Smart money exiting · $12.1K sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
No
88% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.3pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
88%price88%model est.*
Smart wallets
24
$58.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$1,573
72h +$24.8K
Smart money entered64¢88¢at 07:32Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$90.0K
Explanation
24 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $58.9K riding on it.
The price of 88% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 88¢ at this snapshot.
Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$1,573, +$24.8K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $15 |
| 3h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $2 |
| 3h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $15 |
| 3h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $10 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $34 |
| 4h ago | Paul973973Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $8 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $164 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $0 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $875 |
| 4h ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $875 |
| 5h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,720 |
| 9h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $2 |
| 9h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $215 |
| 9h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $26 |
| 9h ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,710 |
| 9h ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $1,710 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $2 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $48 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $2 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $48 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $503 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $36 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $450 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $83 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $848 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $75 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $848 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $100 |
| 9h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $100 |
| 9h ago | debasedMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $198 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,687 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $1,648 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $190 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $175 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 78¢ | $173 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 77¢ | $40 |
| 10h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 77¢ | $131 |
| 10h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $169 |
| 10h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 76¢ | $760 |
| 11h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $44 |
| 11h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $100 |
| 11h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $100 |
| 11h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $100 |
| 11h ago | pbshineMid | Sell | Yes | 26¢ | $143 |
| 12h ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 25¢ | $250 |
| 12h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 75¢ | $11 |