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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

ActiveLiquidity $137.4K·Volume $603.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes34%No67%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 18:46computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
34% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
97%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
34%price34%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$2,231 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$823
72h +$1,200
Smart money entered38¢34¢at 18:46(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy22h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$137.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,231 riding on it.

The price of 34% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 38¢; the price was 34¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$823, +$1,200 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 18:46
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
22h ago0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05MidSellYes35¢$1,414
22h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes38¢$73
22h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes38¢$73
22h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes38¢$3
23h agoRdogTestTopBuyYes40¢$3
23h agoRdogTestTopBuyYes40¢$16
23h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo57¢$57
23h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo58¢$117
23h agoRdogTestTopBuyYes40¢$80
23h agoRdogTestTopBuyYes40¢$442
23h agoRdogTestTopBuyYes40¢$442
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo58¢$7
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo58¢$4
1d ago0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05MidBuyYes40¢$1,588
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo60¢$133
1d agoklli27MidSellYes35¢$2
1d agoklli27MidSellYes35¢$2
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes35¢$389
1d agoklli27MidSellNo64¢$3
1d agoklli27MidBuyNo65¢$344
1d agoklli27MidBuyYes36¢$190
1d agoklli27MidBuyNo65¢$344
1d agoklli27MidBuyYes36¢$190
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes38¢$38
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes38¢$38
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes38¢$38
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes38¢$38
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$15
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$15
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$12
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$12
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$12
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyYes36¢$12
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo63¢$140
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo63¢$140
3d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes34¢$1
3d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes34¢$0
3d agoTenebrus7TopBuyYes34¢$248
3d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes34¢$75
3d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes34¢$54
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes36¢$231
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo63¢$126
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellNo65¢$434
4d agoTenebrus7TopSellNo65¢$141
5d agoTenebrus7TopSellNo64¢$566
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo63¢$140
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo65¢$21
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo65¢$109
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes34¢$7
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes34¢$68