US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $137.4K·Volume $603.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes34%No67%
Smart money leans
Yes
34% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
97%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
34%price34%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$2,231 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$823
72h +$1,200
Smart money entered38¢34¢at 18:46(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy22h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$137.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,231 riding on it.
The price of 34% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 38¢; the price was 34¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$823, +$1,200 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $1,414 |
| 22h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $73 |
| 22h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $73 |
| 22h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $3 |
| 23h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $3 |
| 23h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $16 |
| 23h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 57¢ | $57 |
| 23h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $117 |
| 23h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $80 |
| 23h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $442 |
| 23h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $442 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $1,588 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 60¢ | $133 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Sell | Yes | 35¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $389 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Sell | No | 64¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $344 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $190 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $344 |
| 1d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $190 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $15 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $140 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $140 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $248 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $75 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $54 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $231 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $126 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 65¢ | $434 |
| 4d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 65¢ | $141 |
| 5d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 64¢ | $566 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 63¢ | $140 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $21 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 65¢ | $109 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $68 |