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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

ActiveLiquidity $84.6K·Volume $565.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes12%No89%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 21:01computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
13% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
88%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
13%price13%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$6,722 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$6,118
72h +$9,290
Smart money entered16¢13¢at 21:01(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$84.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,722 riding on it.

The price of 13% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 16¢; the price was 13¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$6,118, +$9,290 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 21:01
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$4
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$4
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$8
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$1
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$1
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$4
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$8
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$2
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$27
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$36
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$43
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$144
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$289
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$23
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$25
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$27
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$0
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$43
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$144
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$2
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$27
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$23
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$25
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$27
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$36
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$289
2h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes12¢$0
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$0
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$0
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$8
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$29
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes14¢$311
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$8
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes13¢$29
3h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes14¢$311
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$332
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$332
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$3
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$2
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$2
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$5
4h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$5
5h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$1
7h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$25
7h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes15¢$25
9h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes18¢$4
9h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes18¢$4
12h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes18¢$46
12h agoTenebrus7TopSellYes18¢$46
22h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes14¢$11