US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $84.6K·Volume $565.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes12%No89%
Smart money leans
Yes
13% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
88%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
13%price13%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$6,722 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$6,118
72h +$9,290
Smart money entered16¢13¢at 21:01(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$84.6K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,722 riding on it.
The price of 13% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 16¢; the price was 13¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$6,118, +$9,290 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:01
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $4 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $8 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $27 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $36 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $43 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $144 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $289 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $23 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $25 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $27 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $43 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $144 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $27 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $23 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $25 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $27 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $36 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $289 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $311 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $8 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $29 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $311 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $332 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $332 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $3 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $2 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $5 |
| 4h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $5 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $1 |
| 7h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $25 |
| 7h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $25 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 9h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $46 |
| 12h ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $46 |
| 22h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $11 |