Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $68.0K·Volume $788.1K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
97%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
18
$69.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$1,478
72h +$23.5K
Smart money entered78¢96¢at 07:46(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$68.0K
Explanation
18 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $69.9K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$1,478, +$23.5K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:46
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.8¢ | $38 |
| 2h ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $193 |
| 2h ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $641 |
| 3h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 3h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 4.1¢ | $1 |
| 3h ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $221 |
| 4h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $766 |
| 4h ago | hugecaulkMid | Sell | Yes | 4.4¢ | $35 |
| 4h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $766 |
| 4h ago | hugecaulkMid | Sell | Yes | 4.4¢ | $9 |
| 4h ago | hugecaulkMid | Sell | Yes | 4.4¢ | $88 |
| 6h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,902 |
| 7h ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $846 |
| 7h ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $847 |
| 8h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.2¢ | $17 |
| 9h ago | carlos484Top | Sell | No | 95¢ | $4,096 |
| 9h ago | carlos484Top | Sell | No | 95¢ | $4,096 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,906 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $43 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $43 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $46 |
| 9h ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 4.0¢ | $46 |
| 9h ago | JesetradingTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $22 |
| 9h ago | JesetradingTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $19 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1,235 |
| 9h ago | JesetradingTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $104 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $399 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $387 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $411 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $51 |
| 9h ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $51 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $79 |
| 9h ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $79 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $117 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $118 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $88 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $17 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $13 |