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Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $90.5K·Volume $4.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes92%No8%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:45computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
93% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
93%price93%model est.*
Smart wallets
12
$130.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$1,291
72h +$2,057
Smart money entered64¢93¢at 07:45(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy7h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$90.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

12 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $130.4K riding on it.

The price of 93% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 64¢; the price was 93¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$1,291, +$2,057 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
7h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes91¢$54
7h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes91¢$54
7h agostupid22MidBuyYes92¢$863
13h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo7.4¢$346
13h agostupid22MidBuyYes92¢$811
13h agostupid22MidBuyYes92¢$11
13h agostupid22MidBuyYes92¢$46
18h agostupid22MidBuyYes92¢$113
18h agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$30
18h agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$2
21h agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$39
21h agoyen4uMidSellYes93¢$1,810
21h agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$46
21h agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$407
1d agostupid22MidSellYes94¢$938
1d agostupid22MidSellYes94¢$938
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$401
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes93¢$401
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo6.4¢$140
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$172
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo6.4¢$140
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$172
1d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$7
1d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$7
1d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$446
1d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$446
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$35
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$35
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$168
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$22
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$2
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$514
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$21
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$73
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$73
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$184
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$184
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$150
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$150
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$340
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$6
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$5
1d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$5
2d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$13
2d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$454
2d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$1,582
2d agostupid22MidBuyYes94¢$1,582
2d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$31
2d agostupid22MidSellYes95¢$584
2d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes93¢$186