Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $77.0K·Volume $3.8M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$16.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢99¢at 03:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$77.0K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $16.6K riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $2,600 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $406 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |