Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $87.4K·Volume $1.6M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$55.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢96¢at 07:21(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$87.4K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $55.9K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $25 |
| 3d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $25 |
| 3d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $39 |
| 3d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $45 |
| 5d ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 4.7¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 3.4¢ | $83 |
| 5d ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $772 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $24 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | nmnrTop | Sell | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | nmnrTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $1,059 |
| 6d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $31 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $171 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $875 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 83¢ | $1,566 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $41 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $114 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $162 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1,560 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1,509 |
| 6d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 83¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $545 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $294 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $549 |
| 6d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $2,331 |
| 6d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $285 |
| 6d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $8 |
| 6d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $190 |
| 6d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $234 |
| 6d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $158 |
| 6d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $80 |
| 6d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $160 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $209 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $112 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $901 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $780 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $156 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $593 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $38 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $474 |
| 1w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $25 |