Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $20.9K·Volume $190.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,119 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered79¢96¢at 14:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 52d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$20.9K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,119 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,119 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 42¢ | $153 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 68¢ | $532 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 89¢ | $1,699 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $34 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $26 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $35 |
| 4w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $19 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 90¢ | $179 |
| 11w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $4 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $37 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $37 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $37 |
| 12w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 91¢ | $18 |