Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $93.0K·Volume $2.5M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
6
$65.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered84¢97¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$93.0K
Explanation
6 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $65.7K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $294 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $258 |
| 2w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $23 |
| 2w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $8 |
| 3w ago | dzsibenajaMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $2,850 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $36 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $52 |
| 5w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $3,666 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $279 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $223 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $90 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $276 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $495 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $104 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $145 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $91 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $129 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Sell | No | 90¢ | $1,246 |
| 6w ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $445 |
| 6w ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | qizhan1Mid | Sell | No | 88¢ | $612 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $84 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $9 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $6 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $8 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $10 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $96 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $11 |
| 6w ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $11 |