Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
ActiveLiquidity $93.5K·Volume $452.1K·Ends Dec 16, 2026
Price now:Yes78%No23%
Smart money leans
No
23% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
60%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
23%price23%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$296
72h +$4,711
Edge leftnoneLast smart buy21h agoResolvesin 35d(Dec 16, 2026)Liquidity$93.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is somewhat betting on "No", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 23% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
Note: only $0 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$296, +$4,711 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:39