Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $102.4K·Volume $7.2M·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No6%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
19
$146.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$87
72h +$21.9K
Smart money entered74¢94¢at 07:12(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy23h agoResolvesin 50d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$102.4K
Explanation
19 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $146.4K riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$87, +$21.9K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $13 |
| 7h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $20 |
| 10h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $31 |
| 13h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $95 |
| 18h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $5 |
| 18h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $17 |
| 18h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $6 |
| 23h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $12 |
| 23h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $12 |
| 23h ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $123 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $60 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $218 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $60 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $218 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.1¢ | $65 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $53 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $1,500 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $21 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Sell | Yes | 94¢ | $21 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $1,000 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $14 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $14 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $1,000 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | zthunderfuryMid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | classifiedMid | Buy | No | 6.4¢ | $0 |