Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $98.3K·Volume $451.4K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
13
$149.4K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$162.3K
Smart money entered93¢97¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$98.3K
Explanation
13 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $149.4K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$162.3K on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13