Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $53.9K·Volume $333.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes23%No77%
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$3,500 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$156
72h +$4,886
Smart money entered59¢78¢at 21:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy9h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$53.9K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,500 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$156, +$4,886 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9h ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 67¢ | $67 |
| 9h ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 67¢ | $67 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $37 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $37 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $87 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $14 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $348 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $348 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $14 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $107 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1,737 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $7 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $138 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $16 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $138 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $193 |
| 2d ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | No | 58¢ | $193 |
| 2d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $51 |
| 2d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $75 |
| 3d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | Yes | 32¢ | $16 |
| 3d ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $35 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | No | 69¢ | $71 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | No | 69¢ | $125 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $21 |
| 3d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 68¢ | $21 |