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Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

ActiveLiquidity $53.9K·Volume $333.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes23%No77%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 21:27computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
90%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$3,500 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$156
72h +$4,886
Smart money entered59¢78¢at 21:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy9h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$53.9K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,500 riding on it.

The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 59¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$156, +$4,886 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 21:27
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
9h agoG.HchenTopBuyNo67¢$67
9h agoG.HchenTopBuyNo67¢$67
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes37¢$37
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes37¢$37
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$87
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$14
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$29
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$29
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$29
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$29
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$348
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$348
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$4
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$4
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$7
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$7
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$3
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$3
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$12
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$0
1d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$6
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$14
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$107
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1,737
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$6
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$7
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$138
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$16
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$1
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$138
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$193
2d agotunatylerTopBuyNo58¢$193
2d agoklli27MidBuyYes41¢$51
2d agoklli27MidBuyNo62¢$75
3d agoklli27MidBuyYes32¢$16
3d agoklli27MidBuyNo69¢$35
3d agoifyoulovemeTopSellNo69¢$71
3d agoifyoulovemeTopSellNo69¢$125
3d agoifyoulovemeTopBuyNo68¢$11
3d agoifyoulovemeTopBuyNo68¢$0
3d agoifyoulovemeTopBuyNo68¢$4
3d agoifyoulovemeTopBuyNo68¢$21
3d agoifyoulovemeTopBuyNo68¢$21