Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
ActiveLiquidity $108.7K·Volume $1.9M·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$72.5K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$13.3K
72h -$21.2K
Smart money entered95¢100¢at 19:59(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$108.7K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $72.5K riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$13.3K, -$21.2K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 19:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $558 |
| 2h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $558 |
| 19h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $70 |
| 19h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $2 |
| 19h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $2 |
| 20h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $5,435 |
| 20h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $5,435 |
| 21h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $70 |
| 21h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $70 |
| 21h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $1 |
| 21h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $1 |
| 22h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $238 |
| 22h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $30 |
| 22h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $30 |
| 23h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $101 |
| 23h ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $12 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $400 |
| 1d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $316 |
| 2d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $978 |
| 2d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $3,925 |
| 2d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Sell | Yes | 100¢ | $3,476 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $417 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $76 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $1,028 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $1,025 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $175 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1,851 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $680 |
| 3d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $1,259 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $381 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $572 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $1,649 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 3.8¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $326 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 4.9¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 4.9¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 5.1¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 5.4¢ | $18 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $179 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 6.2¢ | $26 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $677 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $940 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $2,000 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $4,200 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $3,800 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $3,160 |
| 3d ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $564 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $1,100 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 94¢ | $10,000 |
| 3d ago | LulaVaiPerderTop | Buy | Yes | 96¢ | $1,200 |