Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $185.5K·Volume $2.4M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$137.3K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢98¢at 06:51(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$185.5K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $137.3K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:51
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | Siddhartha1Top | Sell | No | 97¢ | $18,724 |
| 5d ago | Siddhartha1Top | Sell | No | 97¢ | $125 |
| 5d ago | Siddhartha1Top | Sell | No | 97¢ | $470 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $1,058 |
| 1w ago | justdanceMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $84 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $66 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $58 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $457 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $257 |
| 1w ago | fbetMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $384 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $216 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $57 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $148 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $577 |
| 3w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $15,195 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $467 |
| 4w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $555 |
| 4w ago | boyauMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $235 |
| 4w ago | boyauMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1,462 |
| 5w ago | TokorTop | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $537 |
| 5w ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $796 |
| 5w ago | 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7Mid | Sell | No | 91¢ | $9,043 |
| 5w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,237 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $13,034 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $104 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $195 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $17 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $38 |
| 5w ago | fbetMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $366 |
| 5w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $185 |
| 6w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $2,700 |
| 6w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 89¢ | $1,988 |
| 7w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $188 |
| 7w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $68 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $365 |
| 7w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $255 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $17,179 |
| 7w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $377 |
| 7w ago | TokorTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $330 |
| 7w ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $8,808 |
| 7w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $2,730 |
| 7w ago | TokorTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,157 |
| 7w ago | Siddhartha1Top | Buy | No | 94¢ | $3,479 |
| 7w ago | Siddhartha1Top | Buy | No | 94¢ | $9,400 |