Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $847.5K·Volume $28.7M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes11%No89%
Smart money leans
Yes
11% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.4pp
model above price
Consensus
84%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
11%price11%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$19.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$112
72h +$8,562
Smart money entered11¢11¢at 06:59(0% priced in)Edge left+0.4ppLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$847.5K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $19.0K riding on it.
The price of 11% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 11¢; the price was 11¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$112, +$8,562 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:59
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | thebug44Mid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $106 |
| 1d ago | semi-semi-Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $1,265 |
| 1d ago | semi-semi-Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.6¢ | $1,220 |
| 1d ago | semi-semi-Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.3¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | semi-semi-Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.3¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $13,927 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $13,927 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $14,124 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $14,124 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 7.4¢ | $296 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 7.4¢ | $296 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 6.9¢ | $52 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | Yes | 6.9¢ | $52 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | Yes | 7.1¢ | $323 |
| 1d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | Yes | 7.1¢ | $13 |
| 1d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.4¢ | $4,200 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $111 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $111 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $684 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Sell | No | 90¢ | $687 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $796 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $796 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 8.4¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $33 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $61 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $59 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $59 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $158 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $21 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $121 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $47 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $24 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | moonlight2020Mid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $524 |
| 3d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $11,196 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 88¢ | $3,864 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $139 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $90 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1,630 |