Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $108.2K·Volume $2.8M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$18.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$133
72h -$133
Smart money entered90¢99¢at 03:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$108.2K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $18.8K riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$133, -$133 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $134 |
| 6d ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $65 |
| 1w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.4¢ | $23 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.1¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 3.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | Ryxon21Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1,037 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.5¢ | $83 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | debasedMid | Sell | Yes | 4.6¢ | $0 |