Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $622.3K·Volume $1.4M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes68%No33%
Smart money leans
No
33% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
82%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
33%price33%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$24.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered32¢33¢at 02:10(65% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$622.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $24.9K riding on it.
The price of 33% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 32¢; the price was 33¢ at this snapshot — roughly 65% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $24.9K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:10
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $15 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $7 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $32 |
| 3d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $201 |
| 4d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $64 |
| 4d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $93 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $115 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $96 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $45 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $9 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $79 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $128 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $182 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $340 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $29 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $31 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $68 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 33¢ | $34 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Sell | Yes | 68¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $105 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $71 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | P1kasoTop | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $335 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 32¢ | $82 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 37¢ | $149 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 37¢ | $149 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 37¢ | $185 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $126 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $43 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $110 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $137 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $66 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $64 |