Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $14.4K·Volume $276.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$55.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered91¢96¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$14.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $55.8K riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 91¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $55.8K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $8 |
| 9h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 9h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $10 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 2.2¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1,900 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $470 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $23 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $8,554 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $713 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $940 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $3,787 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $305 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $41 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 8.8¢ | $313 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $23 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $29 |
| 2w ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $412 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 9.2¢ | $206 |
| 3w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $1,860 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $307 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $4,600 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $5 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $162 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $170 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $10 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $11 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $145 |