Iran leadership change by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $204.1K·Volume $6.0M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes6%No94%
Smart money leans
No
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$330.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$564
72h +$26.2K
Smart money entered87¢94¢at 11:30(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$204.1K
Explanation
9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $330.8K riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$564, +$26.2K over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:30
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $552 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $129 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $46 |
| 1d ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $46 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $63 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $63 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $92 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $92 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $3,525 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $3,525 |
| 2d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $270 |
| 2d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $270 |
| 2d ago | cashyMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2,400 |
| 2d ago | cashyMid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2,400 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $708 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $708 |
| 2d ago | BunCaChamMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $9,300 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $4,600 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $4,600 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $18,800 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $7,529 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,329 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $900 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $350 |
| 5d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $27 |
| 5d ago | debasedMid | Buy | Yes | 9.0¢ | $500 |
| 5d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $9 |
| 5d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $25 |
| 5d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $13 |
| 5d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | cashyMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $2,361 |
| 6d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $3,508 |
| 6d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $92 |
| 6d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $575 |
| 6d ago | justme003Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $2,093 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $23,470 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $2,639 |