US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $30.2K·Volume $684.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$2,884 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered89¢98¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$30.2K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $2,884 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 89¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $566 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $841 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $504 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $1,901 |
| 7w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $337 |
| 7w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $445 |
| 8w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $14 |
| 10w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $1,605 |
| 10w ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $803 |
| 12w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1,920 |