Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $36.8K·Volume $973.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes21%No79%
Smart money leans
Yes
21% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.1pp
model below price
Consensus
62%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
21%price21%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$343 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$72
Smart money entered18¢21¢at 03:21Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$36.8K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $343 riding on it.
The price of 21% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 18¢; the price was 21¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $343 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$72 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $72 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $28 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $16 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $6 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $5 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $40 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $169 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 81¢ | $10 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $9 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $160 |
| 9h ago | CarMid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $15 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $38 |
| 2d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 24¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $1,163 |
| 4d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $2,610 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $321 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $370 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $750 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $54 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 75¢ | $5,000 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $17 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $9 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $213 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $213 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $3 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $66 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $152 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $61 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $1,052 |
| 5d ago | classifiedMid | Sell | No | 71¢ | $1,052 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $63 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $727 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $29 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $22 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $138 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $292 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | carlos484Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $21 |