Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $94.6K·Volume $137.5K·Ends Apr 1, 2027
Price now:Yes21%No80%
Smart money leans
No
80% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
68%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
80%price80%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$17.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered79¢80¢at 00:44(30% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 141d(Apr 1, 2027)Liquidity$94.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $17.0K riding on it.
The price of 80% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 80¢ at this snapshot — roughly 30% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $17.0K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $1,167 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $1,222 |
| 5d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 19¢ | $4,326 |
| 5d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $17,049 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $583 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $893 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $124 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 24¢ | $1,769 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $139 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 27¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $212 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $14 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $54 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $28 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 26¢ | $2,331 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $290 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $3 |