Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $624.6K·Volume $10.6M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
Yes
5% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
5%price5%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$7,848 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$224
72h -$226
Smart money entered4.7¢5.0¢at 02:12(19% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$624.6K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $7,848 riding on it.
The price of 5% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 4.7¢; the price was 5.0¢ at this snapshot — roughly 19% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$224, -$226 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 1h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 2h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $10 |
| 2h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $10 |
| 5h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $3 |
| 10h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $25 |
| 10h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $76 |
| 10h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $101 |
| 2d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 4.8¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 4.8¢ | $35 |
| 5d ago | piepedMid | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | piepedMid | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | piepedMid | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | piepedMid | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | piepedMid | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $48 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $120 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 5.6¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.2¢ | $378 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | scrapbookMid | Sell | Yes | 4.9¢ | $566 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 5.2¢ | $482 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $41 |
| 3w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 5.9¢ | $11 |
| 3w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 5.9¢ | $0 |
| 4w ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $3,959 |
| 5w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 6.6¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | Yes | 6.7¢ | $13 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $0 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $0 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $0 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $0 |
| 8w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 6.2¢ | $0 |