Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $207.0K·Volume $3.6M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$2,243 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$18
72h +$950
Smart money entered1.6¢2.3¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$207.0K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,243 riding on it.
The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.6¢; the price was 2.3¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$18, +$950 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | TBill1Mid | Sell | Yes | 2.9¢ | $24 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $2 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $1 |